Using existing data from evaluations of habitat restoration, we estimated the average change in coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch and steelhead O. mykiss parr and smolt densities for common in-channel
(culvert removal, large wood placement, boulder placement, and constructed logjams) and floodplain
restoration techniques (constructed side channels and reconnected floodplain habitats). We then used these numbers and a Monte Carlo simulation to predict changes in fish numbers in a model watershed for two restoration scenarios: (1) restoration of all accessible habitat within the watershed and (2) restoration of the average amount historically implemented in Puget Sound watersheds (8% of total restorable areas). Mean increases in coho salmon parr or smolt density after restoration ranged from 0.19 to 2.32 parr/m for in-channel techniques and from 0.34 to 1.70 parr/m2 for floodplain techniques. Increases in steelhead parr or smolt density ranged from 0.06 to 0.71 fish/m and from 0.03 to 0.06 fish/m2 for in-channel and floodplain techniques, respectively. Under restoration scenario 1, the predicted mean increase in numbers was 1,459,254 (117%) and 285,302 (140%) for coho salmon parr and smolts and 93,965 (65%) and 28,001 (125%) for steelhead parr and smolts. Under scenario 2, the predicted mean increase in parr and smolts was 59,591 (5%) and 15,022 (7%) for coho salmon and 1,733 (1%) and 1,195 (5%) for steelhead. The percentage of floodplain and in-channel habitat that would have to be restored in the modeled watershed to detect a 25% increase in coho salmon and steelhead smolt production (the minimum level detectable by most monitoring programs) was 20%. However, given the large variability in fish response (changes in density or abundance) to restoration, 100% of the habitat would need to be restored to be 95% certain of achieving a 25% increase in smolt production for either species.